Projected Oral Health Outcomes and Costs Associated With Pediatric Medicaid Disenrollment

What are the projected oral health and cost outcomes associated with Medicaid coverage loss under the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act among US children?In this decision-analytic microsimulation modeling study using data for 11 696 children younger than 19 years from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, Medicaid coverage loss was associated with an additional 95 799 incident caries events and $86.5 million in health care costs over 10 years. Across alternative policy impact scenarios, incremental caries events ranged from 54 051 to 161 231 and incremental costs ranged from $47.9 million to $145.8 million.Results of this study suggest that Medicaid plays a critical role in children’s access to dental care and oral health and coverage disruptions may increase untreated dental disease and health care costs among children reliant on Medicaid.

Corresponding Author: Sung Eun Choi, SM, PhD, Department of Oral Health Policy and Epidemiology, Harvard School of Dental Medicine, 188 Longwood Ave, REB 220, Boston, MA 02115 (sung_choi@hsdm.harvard.edu).

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