Multicenter Prospective Validation of an Updated Proprietary Sepsis Prediction Model

How accurate is the Epic Sepsis Model version 2, an updated proprietary sepsis prediction model implemented at hundreds of US hospitals, at predicting sepsis?This prognostic study of 227 091 inpatient encounters across 4 major US health systems found that the model had an area under the receiver operating curve between 0.82 and 0.92 but demonstrated high institutional variability, low positive predictive value, and high alert burden.These findings suggest that institutions implementing this model should conduct local validation studies to verify performance, integrate clinical workflows to manage false positives, and implement alert silencing strategies to reduce alert burden.

Corresponding Author: Andrew Wong, MD, MS, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, 2800 Plymouth Rd, North Campus Research Complex, Bldg #14, Room G100-22, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2800 (andwong@med.umich.edu).

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