Estimated Effectiveness of 2024-2025 COVID-19 Vaccination Against Severe COVID-19

What was the estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines against severe COVID-19, and did it vary by SARS-CoV-2 lineage or spike protein mutations?In this case-control study of 1888 adults with COVID-19 and 6605 adults without COVID-19, estimated VE was 40% against hospitalization and 79% against invasive mechanical ventilation or death. The estimated VE was similar for KP.3.1.1 and XEC lineages, as well as for spike protein mutations potentially associated with immune evasion (S31 deletion, T22N and F59S substitutions).These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccines offered protection against hospitalization and severe in-hospital outcomes during the 2024-2025 season, in which multiple JN.1 lineages evolved and circulated.

Corresponding Author: Kevin C. Ma, PhD, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30329 (tra3@cdc.gov).

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