Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025

To what extent could COVID-19 vaccination reduce the likely disease burden in the US from April 2024 to April 2025?In this decision analytical model using ensemble-based projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and related deaths under plausible assumptions of immune escape and vaccine recommendations, the projected disease burden during April 2024 to April 2025 was similar in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of all individuals was projected to reduce 10% to 20% of COVID-19 burden compared with no vaccination recommendation, with additional indirect benefits to individuals aged 65 years and older compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only.These findings suggest that vaccines can be an effective tool for limiting COVID-19 burden, with a universal vaccine recommendation potentially saving thousands more lives through direct and indirect effects.

Corresponding Author: Sung-mok Jung, PhD, Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 W Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 (sungmok@ad.unc.edu).

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