Proportion of Fentanyl Reports in Illicit Drug Seizures and Opioid Mortality

Was the recent decline in opioid overdose deaths accompanied by a corresponding decline in the share of fentanyl reports in illicit drug seizures?In this time series analysis of national data from all 50 US states and Washington, DC, from the peaks in summer 2023 through fall 2024, the monthly opioid overdose death rate declined by 50% and fentanyl reports declined from 28.8% of illicit drug seizures to 23.2%. The association between the 2 trends was significant but modest compared with the overall decline in deaths and appeared to decline in magnitude with time.These findings suggest that other factors are likely contributing to the decline in mortality.

Corresponding Author: Alex Dahlen, PhD, Biostatistical Collaboration and Consultation Core, Department of Biostatistics, School of Global Public Health, New York University, 708 Broadway, New York City, NY 10002 (alex.dahlen@nyu.edu).

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