Global Disparities in Premature Mortality

How does the probability of premature death (PPD)—defined as probability of dying before 70 years of age—in 7 global regions and the 30 most populous countries compare to a frontier representing the lowest country-level PPD?In this cross-sectional study, the frontier PPD fell from 57% to 12% from 1900 to 2019. Of the 7 global regions highlighted here, the greatest convergence toward the frontier since 2000 was observed in sub-Saharan Africa, which had the same PPD as the frontier almost 150 years earlier in the year 2000 and just over 100 years earlier in 2019.This study underscores persistent inequality in living standards and access to health-enhancing technologies, as well as context-specific obstacles that can impact long-run declines in PPD.

Corresponding Author: Omar Karlsson, PhD, Duke University Population Research Institute, Duke University, 140 Science Dr, Durham, NC 27710 (karlssono@outlook.com).

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