Development and Validation of a Parsimonious Risk Stratification Model for Pancreatic Cancer

Can pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk be predicted using routinely available clinical data in diverse patient populations?In this cohort study of more than 11 million adults across 54 US health systems and the UK Biobank, a parsimonious model with 19 standard demographic, clinical, and laboratory predictors demonstrated strong discrimination and calibration for incident PDAC.A transparent and generalizable PDAC risk model enabled population-level identification of individuals at elevated risk using routinely collected clinical data, providing a foundation for targeted biomarker testing and multistage early detection strategies.

Corresponding Author: Morgan E. Grams, MD, PhD, Division of Precision Medicine, Department of Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 227 E 30th St, #825, New York, NY 10016 (morgan.grams@nyulangone.org).

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