Performance of a Sepsis Prediction Model Across Different Sepsis Definitions

How does an electronic health record locally trained early detection of sepsis model perform across commonly used, electronically computable sepsis definitions?In this diagnostic study of 198 494 patient encounters, model performance varied substantially by sepsis definition (Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock [Sepsis-3], Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock: Management Bundle, and Adult Sepsis Event) with overall good discrimination but modest and variable precision, positive predictive value, and lead time. Performance was highest for Sepsis-3.These findings suggest that the locally trained early detection of sepsis model may provide moderate predictive accuracy and early warning for sepsis, but high false-positive rates and variability across definitions underscore the need for careful calibration and tailored implementation.

Corresponding Author: Sayon Dutta, MD, MPH, Massachusetts General Hospital, 55 Fruit St, Boston, MA 02114 (sdutta@mgh.harvard.edu).

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