Social Mixing Patterns and Chikungunya Reemergence Risk in French Polynesia

What is the risk of chikungunya reemergence in French Polynesia a decade after the first outbreak was recorded?In this cross-sectional study with seroprevalence data from 457 schoolchildren and 1906 adults, chikungunya seroprevalence among schoolchildren was 62.8% and weighted seroprevalence in adults was 67.6%. Modeling inferred a pre-outbreak basic reproduction number of 1.78 in 2014 to 2015, estimated an effective reproduction number (R) of 0.95 for 2025, and projected that the R would exceed 1 by 2028 assuming assortive social mixing.The findings of this study suggest that despite high overall immunity, chikungunya transmission could be sustained following reintroduction; additionally considering age-specific contact matrices in risk assessment would help to refine estimated timing of reemergence.

Corresponding Author: Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau, PhD, Laboratory of Research on Emerging Viral Diseases, Institut Louis Malardé, BP 30, 98713 Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia (mlormeau@ilm.pf).

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