Original Investigation

Tobacco Smoking and Lung Cancer Risk After Negative Baseline Low-Dose Computed Tomography Findings

JAMA Network Open 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2026.1913

March 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT

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What is the association of tobacco smoking status, pack-years, and cessation duration with long-term lung cancer risk after negative baseline low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) findings?In this cohort study of 30 565 participants with negative baseline LDCT findings, smokers, especially those with a smoking history of 20 pack-years or more, had a significantly higher lung cancer risk than never smokers by year 3 after initial screening, with higher susceptibility in women and no significant risk reduction with short-term cessation (<15 years).These findings suggest support for extending the initial screening interval and implementing personalized long-term monitoring based on smoking history.

Corresponding Author: Shaokai Zhang, PhD, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University shaokaizhang@126.com).

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