Global Assessment of COVID-19 Mortality Displacement From 2020 to 2024

Did mortality declines observed in 2023 and 2024 represent a return to prepandemic trends, or were they associated with a temporary drop in deaths among frail individuals who died earlier than expected during the COVID-19 pandemic (mortality displacement)?In this cross-sectional study of 352 182 284 deaths across 34 countries, statistically significant mortality displacement were observed in only 3 countries (Greece, Latvia, and Poland), mainly among adults aged 85 years or older and in countries with high COVID-19–era mortality. The US resumed stable prepandemic mortality patterns by 2024, but most European countries had not.These findings underscore the need for broad population-wide protection during pandemics and for understanding why many countries have yet to return to pre–COVID-19 mortality trajectories.

Corresponding Author: David Makram Bishai, MD, PhD, Director’s Office, G/F, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Patrick Manson Building (North Wing), 7 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong SAR, China (dbishai@hku.hk).

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