Original Investigation

Clinical Significance of a Multicancer Screening Trial With Stage-Based End Points

JAMA Network Open 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.36247

October 09, 2025 at 11:00 AM EDT

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How should the scientific community judge the clinical significance of the first randomized multicancer screening trial with its stage-based end point?This independent decision-analytic model study with 2 simulated cohorts of 70 000 participants estimated that the trial may achieve a 6% to 23% reduction in late-stage incidence over 3 years and a 6% to 9% reduction in cancer mortality over 5 years, with lung and colorectal cancers contributing the most to these reductions.These estimates challenge the research community to weigh the clinical significance of short-term, stage-based end points and to recognize the importance of sufficiently detailed reporting of test performance and outcomes by cancer type.

Corresponding Author: Ruth Etzioni, PhD, Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, M3-B232, Seattle, WA 98109 (retzioni@fredhutch.org).

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