Nicotine Reduction Standard in Cigarettes and Estimated Lives Saved and Deaths Averted

What are the estimated life-years saved (LYS) and premature deaths averted (PDA) by 2100 by race and ethnicity, rural vs urban residence, and sex if a nicotine reduction standard (NRS) in cigarettes was implemented in 2025?In this analysis, there were significant benefits in terms of LYS and PDA for all groups, and LYS could reach or near millions for American Indian and Alaska Native and Asian persons and near or more than tens of millions for Black/African American, Hispanic, and rural populations. The forecasted percentage of LYS and PDA for American Indian and Alaska Native, Black/African American, and rural-residing persons was likely to be greater than their respective percentage of the US population, and significant benefits were also estimated for White persons, across both sexes, and among those living in urban areas.The study results suggest that an NRS would likely be beneficial for all groups and may be a disparity-reducing policy.

Corresponding Author: Dana Mowls Carroll, PhD, MPH, Tobacco Research Programs, 717 Delaware St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55414 (dcarroll@umn.edu).

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