Projected US Cardiovascular Disease Burden From Heat Exposure for Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

What is the current and projected heat-attributable cardiovascular disease burden across US counties under different climate change scenarios?In this study analyzing 3108 US counties from 2010 through 2016 with projections in 2030 and 2050, baseline heat-attributable cardiovascular disease burden was 138.5 disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) per 100 000. Under high-emissions scenarios by 2050, burden increased to 418.2 DALY per 100 000, with population aging increasing burden by 34%, independent of temperature; middle-income and low-income counties experienced higher relative burden increases compared with high-income counties.Heat mitigation must become central to cardiovascular prevention, particularly for aging and economically vulnerable populations.

Corresponding Authors: Sanjay Rajagopalan, MD, Harrington Heart and Vascular Institute, University Hospitals, 11100 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44106 (sanjay.rajagopalan@uhhospitals.org); Salil V. Deo, MD, PhD, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Case School of Medicine, 10900 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44106 (svd14@case.edu).

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